According to the source, a social post dated 2025-12-11 claims Bitcoin (BTC) is not reacting to Federal Reserve guidance but provides no charts or figures to verify the claim. source: Twitter post referenced by user dated 2025-12-11 To validate any BTC–Fed divergence, first review the latest FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), and Powell press conference transcript to quantify rate-path and liquidity signals that typically drive crypto beta. source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, federalreserve.gov FOMC materials Cross-check real-time BTC spot and perpetual futures metrics—basis, funding rate, open interest, and liquidations—plus correlations to DXY and U.S. 2-year Treasury yields; a genuine divergence is indicated when BTC holds gains while DXY and 2y yields rise and funding remains flat to positive. source: TradingView BTCUSD; ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY); U.S. Treasury daily yield rates at home.treasury.gov; Binance/Bybit futures statistics pages For trade planning, track the prior FOMC-day high/low, 20/50-day EMAs, 200-day SMA, and 30-day realized volatility; a breakout with expanding volume and rising cumulative volume delta improves continuation odds, while failure back inside the range favors mean reversion. source: TradingView technical indicators; Deribit and CME crypto volatility data Manage risk by sizing to volatility (for example, 1x ATR stop distance) and pre-marking macro calendar catalysts (CPI, PCE, jobless claims) that can invert correlations intraday. source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI schedule (bls.gov); Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE calendar (bea.gov); U.S. Department of Labor weekly claims (dol.gov)

According to the source, analysts argue that an end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) would likely be a stronger upside catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) than a single policy rate cut because halting balance sheet runoff stops USD liquidity from shrinking (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, May 1, 2024; Board of Governors H.4.1 statistical release). Traders should watch the FOMC statement and Chair Powell’s remarks for any signal of ending or further slowing QT, including changes to Treasury/MBS runoff caps or reinvestment guidance, which directly affect the pace of reserve creation (source: Federal Reserve, FOMC communications). Immediate cross-asset reads for BTC include the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the 2-year Treasury yield, and 10-year real yields, where a weaker dollar and falling real yields typically coincide with easier financial conditions that have supported risk assets historically (sources: ICE for DXY; U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve for yields). Rate-cut odds are commonly tracked via futures-implied probabilities on the CME FedWatch Tool, which helps quantify policy path expectations for trade timing around the decision (source: CME Group, FedWatch Tool).